I will get short the next time 6E tests and reverses against the 20/50 day moving averages.

Shorting the Euro and Gold have been my priorities this year and this market has played out as I expected. Unfortunately I missed the last great shorting opportunity: the Euro tested the 1.4553 downtrend line and closed with a doji- a good setup and I have a feeling the Euro won’t trade near 1.33 again this year. I’m going to get short this market the next time it tests the 20/50 day moving averages. I’ll post my trade when I do get short.

The big question looming these days is whether Greece will abandon the Euro. I’m not a fundamentalist and don’t have any inside information on this issue but from the chart, the Euro looks so weak to me and this suggests that traders already believe this is a foregone conclusion.

ES is holding above the 1068 uptrend and should head towards 1420 soon.

I have been really busy lately and haven’t been able to trade as much. A few days ago i thought ES would head for 1338.5 after it broke below 1359.25 and it did drop a bit farther to about 1354 but that was it. Now ES has reversed and is still holding above the 108 uptrend line. It’s still possible for ES to drop to 1338.5 but I think it is more likely that ES now heads over 1419.75. It shouldn’t take very long for ES to break above 1419.75, I would estimate that within 5 days it should be at this level.

If ES does not hit 1419.75 in the next 5 days then it raises the possibility that ES might be beginning a deeper correction. But we have seen this before…

Similar candlestick structure from December 2010.

The current candlestick structure strongly resembles that from December 2010. The market has moved up a a lot since the end of last year. And as long as ES continues to stay above the 1068 uptrend line I am of the opinion like in December 2010 that there is a lot more upside ahead above 1420.

After hitting 1359.25 for a second time, ES is now headed to 1338.5

After hitting 1359.25 for a second time, ES is now headed to 1338.5.

After making a marginally higher high above 1390, ES trap reversed and has fallen back under 1380.

After making a marginally higher high above 1390, ES trap reversed and has fallen back under 1380. Support is at 1376.25 from the 50 day moving average. ES could reverse there, but if it doesn’t then ES could possibly drop all the way down to the 1365-1370 range. I still think ES will hold in that range though and rally in the coming days. Again the price level to watch is 1359.25- it should not drop that far and if it does then ES is heading to 1338.

Gold is still in a tricky territory near support from the 681 uptrend line.

Gold is still trading in a tricky territory near support from the 681 uptrend line. I exited my Gold short a few weeks ago around 1680. I could have got some more profit out of it but I was spooked by the possibility of a big bounce. And I still feel like a big bounce is possible. I tend to shy away from trading against trendlines. Also I haven’t seen a good sell setup in a while so I’m not inclined to get short here.

If I had to trade Gold right here it would be to the long side, not short one. But overall this market is very unclear right now and I would rather wait and let the picture develop some more before my next trade.

If ES can hold above the 1352.5 low then there is a good chance that ES is headed over 1420.

I’m up early. After breaking below yesterday’s swing low I set an alert for when ES breaks back above 1365 but was a little slow to wake up. If I had to bet on it, I think ES will hold above 1352.5 from here on out and if it does then I believe ES has a good chance of going up over 1420. The uptrend still looks good to me. Getting long in this general price area should at least be good for a rally to 1380-1390 so I’m looking for some kind of pullback to buy into.

On the other hand if ES did drop below 1352.5 then the level to watch is 1338. If ES hits 1338 then that is a big sign that this uptrend may be coming to an end and I would try to short the next bounce.

Currently ES is at about 1371, resistance is at 1374.75 (50 day), followed by 1388.5 (previous hourly swing high and 20 day moving average). If I can’t get long right now then I’ll wait for ES to hit 1388.5 and then try to buy any resulting pullback.

The uptrend is very much intact, for now.

ES is gapping up from Friday’s 1365 close and for now it looks like a very strong hold above the 1068 uptrend line. If ES closes around 1373 or higher then ES is a buy tomorrow. But given the candlestick structure over the past 3-4 days this setup is not as good as it could be. I would rather be cautious and wait for ES to break Friday’s 1388.5 high and then try to buy a pullback.

I had hoped ES would drop to the gold rectangle that I have drawn in but if this happens now then I think ES would be a good short on a bounce and it would not be clear whether there would be upside above 1419.75.

ES is near support from the 1068 uptrend line. Look for longs here

ES is near support from the 1068 uptrend line. But it still could drop to the gold rectangle that I have drawn in. In particular I am a buyer if ES drops below yesterday’s low because I believe this situation is prone to trap reversal. If ES drops to 1338.5 then I still think ES will bounce but it that situation it becomes very shortable on a bounce- let’s see if this happens.

The pullback so far is deeper than anyone that we have had all year and I am hoping that we will trade near these prices for more than a day so I can get a safe entry. There is no good buy setup yet and it could just reverse back to the upside from here but I’m going to keep holding out for a good entry. Until then I will keep day trading to the long side.