I don’t have the time to look at this setup in great detail but it is compelling and attracted my attention this morning. The dollar could be setting up to head over 80.5.

The dollar chart still looks bullish to me. After hitting 81.635 (2011 high) the dollar has pulled back to the 38.2% retracement of the rally from 72.86 and recently bounced hard off this level. It is maintaining an uptrend line from August 2011. As long as the dollar stays above 77.248 I favor it to [...]

I haven’t looked at the dollar chart in ages. I had a tremendous amount of success shorting the dollar earlier this year and since it had sunk to such lows I hadn’t glanced at it in a while. And admittedly I decided to look at it just now to see if there were any good [...]

The dollar may be topping on a short term timescale (1-3 days) but overall I think if the dollar can hold above 77.5 that the dollar will head back to 81.6. This means I expect Gold and Crude to continue to slide. Crude probably will continue to drop. But I’m not so sure about Gold. [...]

The dollar looks poisted to make another run at 76.2 as it held above trendline A yesterday and has also done so today (so far). While I shorted dollar heavily earlier in the year, I am on the sidelines right now because the picture is very murky. On one hand the dollar is making higher [...]

The dollar has not correlated inversely with the S&P recently as well as it has in the past. Instead the dollar has been sliding along with the stock market like it use to before July 2008. Because of this discorrelation, I have ignored currencies over the past week and let them sort out their trend. [...]

The dollar is struggling to break above the 38.2% retracement level of the drop from 81.635 to 72.86 which stands at 76.212. If the dollar is unable to break above this level then it’s headed back down to 72.86 and possibly lower. I would wait for a daily sell signal to show up before shorting [...]

I exited my dollar short based on the strength of the dollar rally. The dollar appears to be headed towards 76. I won’t be looking at any dollar shorts until the dollar gets above 77.25- the 50% retracement of the drop from 81.635 to 72.86. I’m expecting it to reach those price levels in the [...]

With the Euro potentially breaking out above a 3 year down trendline (see today’s 6E post), I saw no reason to exit my short dollar trade. The lowest that DX has ever traded is 74.21 and I think DX is headed there. My original entry back in January is shown at 80.754. There is no [...]

The dollar is backtesting the downtrend line A. If the dollar closes below trendline A today then it will head back to the 75 area and most likely make new lows. If the dollar can break above this trendline then I think the next upside target is 77.5. But the trend in the dollar has [...]